Why HTML 5 isn’t ready for prime time

I recently had a client inquire about the feasibility of replacing some of their Flash content with HTML 5 (they’re a very large organization and require supporting a variety of browsers). Of course, the inquiry spawned from the iPad. Here’s an excerpt of my response–I thought it’d be valuable to share.

1. Universal browser support is not here yet.
   You’ll notice that Internet Explorer versions 6,7, and 8 support nearly nothing of HTML 5. You’ll also notice that these tests don’t account for older versions of Firefox or Safari, neither of which are likely to provide as much support as their current editions.

   http://www.deepbluesky.com/blog/-/browser-support-for-css3-and-html5_72/
   http://findmebyip.com/litmus/#target-selector
   http://html5test.com/

2. HTML 5 Tools don’t yet exist, and the community is still young.
   HTML editing software hasn’t been updated/created to accurately write and validate HTML 5. Granted, HTML 5 can be written by hand, but the workaround to unilaterally support modern browsers has not been fully discovered or documented.
3. HTML 5 will not be finalized until 2022. See comments below.
   I have no doubt that browsers will continually progress with supporting the market’s ongoing “definition” of HTML5, however, since the W3C’s (the governing organization behind the Web) current roadmap doesn’t finalize the spec until 2022, much can change in that time. Based on past history, HTML 5 could drastically change–or even be completely abandoned.

   http://www.webmonkey.com/2008/09/html_5_won_t_be_ready_until_2022dot_yes__2022dot/
   http://wwws.techrepublic.com.com/programming-and-development/?p=718

Personally, I own an iPad, and am excited by the potential of HTML 5, and while I do a significant amount of Flash development, I look forward to HTML 5 replacing certain tasks that Flash Player had to fill. That said, HTML 5 is not yet a valid solution for mainstream Websites, especially when Flash Player runs on ~99% of Web browsers (including mobile devices besides Apple’s). Also, while I agree with many of the points on Steve Jobs’ open letter, Apple’s financial incentives of eliminating Flash and Java games to emphasize the iTunes store are hard to overlook.